Nuclear War in Europe - A Scenario
By Jan Mortier

There is a pressing need to calm the global political situation, as East-West tensions increasingly hot up and the likelihood of world war breaking out in Europe, seems more likely as unofficial Kremlin spokesmen such as Viktor Bout, broadcast interviews in America increasingly mentioning the possibility of Russian retaliatory strikes on European countries who are sending arms to Ukraine. War can be ended in a day at the whim of the protagonists should they choose. But this war is seen by both Ukraine and Russia as a war for existential survival. And the potential use of nuclear weapons has been mentioned numerous times by several leaders from several nations and several sides.

The use of nuclear weapons looks quite likely for the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis. We cannot predict what will happen, if peace does not break out - for which I earnestly hope - I’m banking on peace. But a likely scenario, in my opinion, is that Russia will bomb an area of Ukraine that is not Kiev, such as the industrial city of Kharkiv, as according to Sir Rodric Braithwaite, they (the Ruskys) consider the city of Kiev to be the foundation of the Kievan Rus' civilization.

Ukraine in response may unveil a surprise NATO Nuland nuke and bomb Moscow in return. At these two moments 14.5 million people will be incinerated. The aftermath and news images of the survivors, most of whom will be without skin is likely to shock the conscience of mankind and stun world leaders, who will not act to settle tensions fast enough. The nuclear fallout will likely not head to western Europe as the prevailing winds in the region usually blow to Moscow on most days of the year. However,  a few days of the year the winds blow west to Europe.

Although the largest country in the world, Russia has three major cities of significance, Moscow, St Petersburg and Novgorad. Ukraine has Kiev, Kharkiv and Lviv. A like for like exchange could be limited to just that, however the reputational significance of Moscow being bombed with nukes is likely to incur the wrath of all of the Russian high command, who will certainly see such an attack as a doomsday moment for them and the Russian civilization. So the Russians are likely to send a volley of nuclear weapons to several targets across the West whom they have already stated are protagonists in the Ukraine war.

This would be, based on the past statements of Russian spokesmen: Primarily London. Secondarily, Paris, Berlin and Warsaw. The Russians are unlikely to target the USA as they are aware that the USA would respond with overwhelming force from its stockpile of thousands of nuclear weapons. So America may remain unaffected, as will the Middle East and Southern hemispheres. This war, if it happens, is going to be a war between Russia and Europe+UK.

Most Cold War nuclear scenarios forecast Europe to be annihilated first in a nuclear war between the great powers. And this will be the case also in this scenario. Europe was always going to be the sacrificial alter between the Cold War nuclear superpowers. It is a shame Europe could not itself, get its act together over the last few decades and become its own superpower. If it had of done, Europe would have much to offer the world now.

The UK and France are the only nuclear weapons developers and holders of nukes in Europe. Both countries signed the Northwood Declaration on 10th July 2025 which means the UK is undertaking the nuclear defence of the European Union in cooperation with France. Yet the UK has not been given a corresponding influence in the political and economic aspects of the European Union. Both France and the UK are likely to retaliate against Russia independently of NATO, as their early warning systems will see the incoming nuclear weapons and once identified, are likely to fire in retaliation, for the same reasons, of having the capital or industrial cities targeted. Casualties in London, if  the bombs are thermonuclear, are likely to be five million dead and five million with third degree burns and dying. The same for Paris. All in one day and the following few days from detonation.

US controlled NATO nukes stationed on bomber jets around Europe including in Berlin and Italy are unlikely to be deployed as the America First administration would not want to be drawn into the war. A Democrat administration is far more likely to become involved and that would imply a potential global nuclear war, as both sides bases and allies would be targets.

Britain and France, in response to Russian nuclear strikes on London and Paris, are likely to launch a sizeable volley of Trident nukes -which have multiple thermonuclear warheads (MIRVs) in each missile- from their submarines near Russia or further afield before any NATO meeting has time to convene. France and the UK’s missiles are likely to destroy all principal Russian cities and fleets, which will end Russian civilization.

At that point, or just before, with their early warning systems, Russia will launch several hundred of its nuclear missiles at pre-targeted cities and industrial sites across Europe. European civilization will be decimated in one fell swoop as dozens of cities are instantaneously incinerated. The death toll for such a nightmare scenario would be in the region of 100 million Europeans dead in one day, with a similar number severely injured or dying over the course of weeks and months.

The Americans will call for calm and de-escalation. Whether the commanders in the Russian bunkers will listen or even be reachable remains to be seen. If there is continuity of government in Russia, which is possible due to its vast tracts of land stretching East, then they (The Ruskys) are likely to send an army of a million men to occupy Europe. Europe, having suffered nuclear devastation will be unlikely able to defend itself form the invasion and will fall under a new Iron Curtain.

The Americans may or may not send troops to rebuff the Russian invasion of Europe, seeking to carve out an area formerly of the Western European Union to stand off against the Russian troops.

Post nuclear war Europe will remain a smouldering wasteland for decades, its cities in ruins and deprivation, starvation and no access to healthcare as the social systems collapse. A further hundred million may die from disease and deprivation. Martial law and continuity of government measures such as the well written Civil Contingencies Act, (The Bill for which I advised Lord Tim Garden on) are likely to remain in place for at least a decade. Democracy in Europe will have died, along with one to three fifths of Europe's people.

The same will have happened in Russia. America, China, the Middle East and the rest of the world will largely remain unaffected, excepting a nuclear winter fallout that would affect crops and food production partially worldwide for some years. If the  nuclear exchange is limited to Europe, and does not become global, than the rest of the world will carry on, as Europe and Russia destroy themselves.

Leaders should pause for thought. Why decimate the beautiful cities of Europe, which gave modern civilization, art, science and culture to most of the world and which most of the world admires? The American military's "Proud Prophet" wargames in 1983  reminds us that  "the use of nuclear weapons is virtually impossible without total nuclear annihilation, regardless of how nuclear weapons were implemented in war plans." In essence, Donald Brennan's 1962 doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) remains as valid today as it did then.

For those leaders willing for a wake up call to the reality of the situation of a potential nuclear war in Europe re-watch the 1983 film “Wargames”, the answer from the supercomputer, called Joshua is there and clear for all to see: “The only way to win the game is not to play.” There is no dishonour in dialing back the temperature on all sides and engaging in dialogue for peace, in fact, to cause peace is the highest honour.

 End.

Jan Mortier is the founder of Civitatis International. He was also the Rapporteur for the World Political Forum- a discussion forum of former heads of state- in its early years. — Article published, Rome, 28 October 2026.